← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+7.17vs Predicted
-
2California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+5.13vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University2.61+0.24vs Predicted
-
4Western Washington University0.67+4.68vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-1.05vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Los Angeles1.79-0.34vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+1.95vs Predicted
-
8Boston University0.86-0.30vs Predicted
-
9Arizona State University0.74+0.74vs Predicted
-
10University of California at San Diego0.68-1.57vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Berkeley0.98-2.85vs Predicted
-
12University of Southern California0.90-4.15vs Predicted
-
13University of Hawaii2.41-8.92vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.133.5%1st Place
-
7.13California Poly Maritime Academy1.205.5%1st Place
-
3.24Stanford University2.6124.8%1st Place
-
8.68Western Washington University0.673.5%1st Place
-
3.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.0417.4%1st Place
-
5.66University of California at Los Angeles1.798.9%1st Place
-
8.95University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.8%1st Place
-
7.7Boston University0.864.9%1st Place
-
9.74Arizona State University0.741.9%1st Place
-
8.43University of California at San Diego0.683.5%1st Place
-
8.15University of California at Berkeley0.984.0%1st Place
-
7.85University of Southern California0.903.8%1st Place
-
4.08University of Hawaii2.4115.7%1st Place
-
13.26University of California at Irvine-1.810.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Ponting | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 1.7% |
| Ryan Downey | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 0.4% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 24.8% | 20.2% | 17.7% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dalton Lovett | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 17.4% | 17.5% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 3.4% |
| Benjamin Luu | 4.9% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Aidan Boylan | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 20.1% | 7.0% |
| Noah Barton | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 1.8% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 1.6% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| Erik Anderson | 15.7% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 79.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.