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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.61+1.84vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+5.40vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+3.28vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.70+1.63vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+3.31vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-2.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.61vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.68-0.26vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.74-0.09vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.86-2.81vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.79-5.90vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.67-3.82vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-1.81-0.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.84Stanford University2.6130.2%1st Place
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7.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.1%1st Place
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6.28California Poly Maritime Academy1.206.7%1st Place
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5.63University of Hawaii1.707.7%1st Place
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8.31University of California at Santa Cruz0.862.9%1st Place
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3.48University of California at Santa Barbara2.0419.4%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Berkeley0.984.2%1st Place
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7.74University of California at San Diego0.684.0%1st Place
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8.91Arizona State University0.742.2%1st Place
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7.19Boston University0.865.8%1st Place
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5.1University of California at Los Angeles1.799.8%1st Place
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8.18Western Washington University0.672.8%1st Place
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12.31University of California at Irvine-1.810.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 30.2% | 21.9% | 18.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 1.6% |
| Ryan Downey | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 0.5% |
| Owen Lahr | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 14.4% | 3.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 19.4% | 20.2% | 18.4% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 1.5% |
| Noah Barton | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 2.4% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 22.2% | 5.5% |
| Benjamin Luu | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 0.9% |
| Grant Janov | 9.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 3.5% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 7.1% | 80.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.