← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
14.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Hawaii2.27+2.68vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University2.41+2.07vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.04vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+4.49vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California0.85+2.84vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Berkeley0.31+3.72vs Predicted
-
7Arizona State University0.66+1.79vs Predicted
-
8University of California at San Diego-0.08-1.36vs Predicted
-
9California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-3.39vs Predicted
-
10University of Washington0.81-2.11vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Los Angeles1.48-3.46vs Predicted
-
12Western Washington University0.54-3.16vs Predicted
-
13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-3.59vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.68University of Hawaii2.2721.1%1st Place
-
4.07Stanford University2.4118.2%1st Place
-
5.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.2%1st Place
-
8.49University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
-
7.84University of Southern California0.854.8%1st Place
-
9.72University of California at Berkeley0.311.8%1st Place
-
8.79Arizona State University0.662.4%1st Place
-
6.64University of California at San Diego-0.086.8%1st Place
-
5.61California Poly Maritime Academy1.3110.2%1st Place
-
7.89University of Washington0.814.9%1st Place
-
7.54University of California at Los Angeles1.485.5%1st Place
-
8.84Western Washington University0.543.2%1st Place
-
9.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.1%1st Place
-
11.47University of California at Irvine-0.361.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 21.1% | 19.6% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Lim | 18.2% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.2% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| Marlo Bozza | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 13.7% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.8% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Kyle Farmer | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 7.4% |
| Max Case | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 12.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 14.3% | 41.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.