Race 11B

barnett

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ryan Astwood 23.3% 19.3% 18.1% 14.5% 10.1% 7.2% 3.2% 3.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Edward Moan 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 3.3% 4.3% 7.2% 7.7% 9.6% 16.2% 21.6% 18.3% 5.7%
Ian Storck 13.6% 14.6% 13.4% 13.2% 13.1% 11.9% 8.8% 7.4% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Matthew Coughlin 9.3% 12.1% 13.6% 13.6% 13.1% 10.9% 11.3% 8.3% 5.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Duncan Swain 21.1% 22.3% 16.3% 12.3% 11.0% 8.0% 4.6% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Jesse Thomas 6.6% 6.6% 7.5% 7.3% 10.3% 12.5% 12.6% 14.3% 12.6% 7.2% 2.2% 0.3%
Philip Koch 5.1% 4.0% 5.1% 7.8% 8.2% 8.0% 11.9% 13.5% 15.8% 13.3% 5.9% 1.4%
Austin Smyth 0.8% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 3.0% 3.0% 3.9% 5.8% 9.3% 16.2% 33.8% 20.2%
Robert Lippincott 6.9% 8.1% 9.2% 12.5% 11.3% 12.5% 13.4% 12.0% 9.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.1%
Ryan Morrison 9.3% 7.8% 10.1% 11.2% 10.7% 12.5% 13.9% 11.6% 7.5% 4.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Jared Dunn 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 4.2% 5.3% 7.3% 9.2% 16.4% 23.1% 19.4% 6.7%
David Mazotas 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 2.2% 3.3% 6.8% 17.5% 65.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.