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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.27+2.66vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.41+2.00vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.99vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.54+4.82vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.66+3.73vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.81+2.11vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+1.51vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.48-0.49vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.85-1.05vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.08-3.39vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-5.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.31-2.51vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-3.51vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66University of Hawaii2.2722.1%1st Place
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4.0Stanford University2.4118.5%1st Place
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4.99University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.1%1st Place
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8.82Western Washington University0.543.2%1st Place
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8.73Arizona State University0.663.1%1st Place
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8.11University of Washington0.813.6%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.5%1st Place
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7.51University of California at Los Angeles1.485.1%1st Place
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7.95University of Southern California0.854.0%1st Place
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6.61University of California at San Diego-0.086.7%1st Place
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5.64California Poly Maritime Academy1.3110.9%1st Place
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9.49University of California at Berkeley0.312.3%1st Place
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9.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.8%1st Place
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11.5University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 22.1% | 18.1% | 15.5% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Justin Lim | 18.5% | 17.4% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.1% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 4.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 6.6% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Marlo Bozza | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 12.2% |
| Max Case | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 13.6% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 15.2% | 40.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.