← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.96vs Predicted
-
2University of Hawaii2.27+1.76vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University2.41+0.98vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.43vs Predicted
-
5Arizona State University0.66+3.79vs Predicted
-
6University of California at San Diego-0.08+0.72vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+1.64vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.50vs Predicted
-
9California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-3.14vs Predicted
-
10Western Washington University0.54-1.04vs Predicted
-
11University of Southern California0.85-2.89vs Predicted
-
12University of Washington0.81-3.98vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Berkeley0.31-3.38vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.4413.2%1st Place
-
3.76University of Hawaii2.2721.8%1st Place
-
3.98Stanford University2.4118.3%1st Place
-
6.43University of California at Los Angeles1.307.2%1st Place
-
8.79Arizona State University0.662.9%1st Place
-
6.72University of California at San Diego-0.086.5%1st Place
-
8.64University of California at Santa Cruz0.823.6%1st Place
-
9.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.5%1st Place
-
5.86California Poly Maritime Academy1.318.5%1st Place
-
8.96Western Washington University0.543.4%1st Place
-
8.11University of Southern California0.854.8%1st Place
-
8.02University of Washington0.814.2%1st Place
-
9.62University of California at Berkeley0.312.3%1st Place
-
11.64University of California at Irvine-0.361.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 13.2% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Bastien Rasse | 21.8% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Lim | 18.3% | 17.8% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 6.7% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| George Soliman | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 6.5% |
| Max Case | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 12.8% |
| Kyle Farmer | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 7.3% |
| Marlo Bozza | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.8% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 13.4% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 16.6% | 42.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.