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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.27+2.65vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.11vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.08+3.74vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.41+0.11vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.54+3.94vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30+0.36vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.66+1.85vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+0.47vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+0.69vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.31-0.44vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.85-2.88vs Predicted
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12University of Washington0.81-3.89vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-7.22vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.65University of Hawaii2.2720.6%1st Place
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5.11University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.0%1st Place
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6.74University of California at San Diego-0.087.7%1st Place
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4.11Stanford University2.4118.4%1st Place
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8.94Western Washington University0.543.5%1st Place
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6.36University of California at Los Angeles1.307.2%1st Place
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8.85Arizona State University0.663.2%1st Place
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8.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
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9.69Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.2%1st Place
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9.56University of California at Berkeley0.312.2%1st Place
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8.12University of Southern California0.854.2%1st Place
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8.11University of Washington0.814.3%1st Place
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5.78California Poly Maritime Academy1.319.2%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Irvine-0.360.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 20.6% | 18.9% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.0% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Justin Lim | 18.4% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 7.2% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.1% |
| Max Case | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 14.9% | 13.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 12.4% |
| Marlo Bozza | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% |
| Kyle Farmer | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 10.4% | 15.3% | 40.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.