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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.41+2.98vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.08+4.70vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.90vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.32vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.27-1.34vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.31+2.54vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+0.26vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.74-0.48vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.66-1.36vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.54-2.25vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-6.38vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.38-3.67vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.98Stanford University2.4118.6%1st Place
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6.7University of California at San Diego-0.087.3%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Santa Barbara1.4411.9%1st Place
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6.32University of California at Los Angeles1.307.3%1st Place
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3.66University of Hawaii2.2720.9%1st Place
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9.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.5%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Berkeley0.312.9%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
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8.52University of Washington0.743.5%1st Place
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8.64Arizona State University0.663.4%1st Place
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8.75Western Washington University0.543.4%1st Place
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5.62California Poly Maritime Academy1.3110.4%1st Place
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9.33University of Southern California0.382.5%1st Place
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11.37University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Lim | 18.6% | 16.6% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Ted McDonough | 11.9% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Bastien Rasse | 20.9% | 19.7% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 14.0% | 12.2% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 12.4% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.1% |
| Erin Pamplin | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 5.7% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 5.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Kyle Farmer | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 10.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 39.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.