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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.87vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.41+1.90vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.31+6.45vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.08+2.34vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.31+0.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.48+1.18vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii2.27-3.47vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.74+0.19vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-0.91vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.66-1.55vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-1.71vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.54-3.47vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.01-2.66vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.4412.0%1st Place
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3.9Stanford University2.4118.5%1st Place
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9.45University of California at Berkeley0.312.1%1st Place
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6.34University of California at San Diego-0.087.6%1st Place
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5.46California Poly Maritime Academy1.3110.2%1st Place
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7.18University of California at Los Angeles1.485.5%1st Place
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3.53University of Hawaii2.2720.9%1st Place
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8.19University of Washington0.744.5%1st Place
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8.09University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.6%1st Place
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8.45Arizona State University0.664.6%1st Place
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9.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.9%1st Place
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8.53Western Washington University0.543.6%1st Place
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10.34University of Southern California-0.012.0%1st Place
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11.37University of California at Irvine-0.360.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 12.0% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Justin Lim | 18.5% | 15.8% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.3% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Kyle Farmer | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Bastien Rasse | 20.9% | 19.1% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.6% |
| George Soliman | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 5.6% |
| Max Case | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 9.6% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 5.5% |
| Eleanor Desai | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 20.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 35.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.