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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.27+2.61vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.41+1.93vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.99vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.66+4.75vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.48+2.52vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.08+0.71vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.31+2.63vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.85-0.07vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-3.12vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-0.58vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-2.60vs Predicted
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12University of Washington0.81-4.03vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.54-4.21vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61University of Hawaii2.2721.6%1st Place
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3.93Stanford University2.4119.9%1st Place
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4.99University of California at Santa Barbara1.4411.3%1st Place
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8.75Arizona State University0.663.8%1st Place
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7.52University of California at Los Angeles1.484.8%1st Place
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6.71University of California at San Diego-0.087.4%1st Place
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9.63University of California at Berkeley0.311.9%1st Place
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7.93University of Southern California0.854.7%1st Place
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5.88California Poly Maritime Academy1.318.6%1st Place
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9.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.0%1st Place
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8.4University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.2%1st Place
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7.97University of Washington0.814.3%1st Place
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8.79Western Washington University0.543.1%1st Place
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11.47University of California at Irvine-0.361.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 21.6% | 18.6% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Lim | 19.9% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 11.3% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 7.8% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 12.7% |
| Marlo Bozza | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Kyle Farmer | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Max Case | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 11.5% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 5.5% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 7.5% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.