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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.98vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.41+2.00vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.85+4.87vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+5.57vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.27-1.31vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.48+1.48vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.08-0.21vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.81-0.03vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.31+0.57vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University0.54-1.23vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-5.29vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-3.49vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.36-1.57vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University0.66-5.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.98University of California at Santa Barbara1.4411.5%1st Place
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4.0Stanford University2.4118.3%1st Place
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7.87University of Southern California0.855.2%1st Place
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9.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.9%1st Place
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3.69University of Hawaii2.2720.7%1st Place
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7.48University of California at Los Angeles1.486.4%1st Place
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6.79University of California at San Diego-0.086.5%1st Place
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7.97University of Washington0.814.7%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Berkeley0.313.0%1st Place
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8.77Western Washington University0.542.9%1st Place
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5.71California Poly Maritime Academy1.319.3%1st Place
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8.51University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.0%1st Place
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11.43University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
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8.65Arizona State University0.663.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 11.5% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Justin Lim | 18.3% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% |
| Max Case | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 13.3% |
| Bastien Rasse | 20.7% | 17.5% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 13.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 7.3% |
| Kyle Farmer | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| George Soliman | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 39.3% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.