Race 11B

pacific-coast-open-fleet-race-championships

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Ted McDonough 11.5% 13.6% 12.8% 13.1% 10.8% 10.8% 7.8% 7.0% 5.8% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4%
Justin Lim 19.8% 16.0% 16.2% 13.4% 10.9% 9.0% 5.6% 5.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Max Case 3.1% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9% 5.5% 5.1% 7.0% 7.7% 10.4% 11.2% 12.7% 14.3% 12.7%
Marianna Shand 8.1% 8.2% 9.0% 8.5% 9.2% 10.5% 11.2% 10.3% 8.3% 7.8% 4.9% 3.1% 0.9%
Kyle Farmer 9.6% 10.1% 11.2% 12.4% 11.3% 10.4% 10.4% 8.3% 6.5% 4.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.2%
Bastien Rasse 23.8% 18.1% 16.6% 12.2% 10.4% 8.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
George Soliman 3.4% 5.0% 5.0% 5.6% 5.5% 7.5% 8.8% 10.2% 10.4% 11.1% 11.1% 10.1% 6.2%
Matt Grimsley 2.5% 4.5% 4.7% 5.1% 6.9% 7.6% 7.4% 8.8% 10.1% 11.1% 12.2% 12.0% 7.0%
Gabriel Reuter 7.1% 7.5% 8.5% 9.0% 10.7% 10.0% 9.8% 9.2% 8.9% 9.3% 5.5% 3.4% 1.2%
Nathan Gerber 2.9% 4.5% 4.0% 5.5% 6.2% 6.1% 6.7% 8.6% 10.5% 11.1% 12.7% 12.2% 8.8%
Wilton Lawton 2.7% 2.5% 2.9% 4.0% 4.4% 4.2% 8.2% 7.4% 9.4% 11.2% 13.0% 16.1% 14.0%
Erin Pamplin 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 5.8% 6.0% 7.4% 8.4% 10.1% 9.6% 9.9% 12.0% 9.9% 7.0%
Nikita Swatek 1.1% 2.5% 1.0% 1.6% 2.4% 3.0% 3.8% 4.2% 6.3% 7.0% 9.6% 16.2% 41.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.