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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University1.35+4.75vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.48+4.79vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.27+0.38vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.08+1.91vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-0.66vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.66+1.85vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.61vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.740.00vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.31-3.88vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.31-1.17vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.54-2.94vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-4.27vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.36-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75Stanford University1.358.0%1st Place
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6.79University of California at Los Angeles1.486.9%1st Place
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3.38University of Hawaii2.2722.0%1st Place
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5.91University of California at San Diego-0.089.1%1st Place
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4.34University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.6%1st Place
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7.85Arizona State University0.664.5%1st Place
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8.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.8%1st Place
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8.0University of Washington0.743.4%1st Place
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5.12California Poly Maritime Academy1.3111.8%1st Place
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8.83University of California at Berkeley0.313.4%1st Place
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8.06Western Washington University0.544.5%1st Place
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7.73University of California at Santa Cruz0.824.7%1st Place
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10.63University of California at Irvine-0.361.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AnaClare Sole | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 22.0% | 20.0% | 17.3% | 14.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 16.6% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.0% |
| Max Case | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 11.1% |
| Erin Pamplin | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Farmer | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 13.4% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 8.1% |
| George Soliman | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 40.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.