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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at San Diego2.89-0.08vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-0.09vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine1.71-0.59vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.56+0.38vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.78-2.12vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.10-1.81vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.70-1.31vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.17-3.32vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.33-3.99vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-1.64-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.92University of California at San Diego2.890.5%1st Place
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2.91University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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3.41University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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5.38University of California at Berkeley0.560.0%1st Place
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4.88University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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6.19Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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7.69University of California at Berkeley-0.700.0%1st Place
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6.68University of California at Los Angeles-0.170.0%1st Place
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7.01University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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8.93University of California at Santa Barbara-1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Morris | 48.4% | 28.0% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 19.4% | 26.8% | 22.1% | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 13.9% | 17.4% | 25.2% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nina Alpert | 3.3% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 15.7% | 14.9% | 18.2% | 15.5% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 5.8% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 16.3% | 18.6% | 15.8% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 17.6% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 4.9% |
| Janice Wondolleck | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 18.4% | 25.9% | 18.1% |
| Gabrielle Robertson | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 19.6% | 15.8% | 7.2% |
| Christopher Keefe | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 19.3% | 20.6% | 9.6% |
| Natalie Davidson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 16.5% | 57.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.