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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego2.89+0.90vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine1.71+1.34vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-0.10vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.10+2.18vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-0.33+1.86vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.70+1.53vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.78-3.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.56-3.69vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.42-2.89vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-1.64-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.9University of California at San Diego2.890.5%1st Place
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3.34University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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2.9University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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6.18Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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6.86University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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7.53University of California at Berkeley-0.700.0%1st Place
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4.95University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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5.31University of California at Berkeley0.560.0%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Los Angeles-0.420.0%1st Place
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8.93University of California at Santa Barbara-1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Morris | 49.6% | 26.0% | 14.5% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 14.3% | 20.6% | 22.6% | 17.9% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 19.7% | 24.5% | 23.5% | 17.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 16.8% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% |
| Christopher Keefe | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 17.6% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 8.0% |
| Janice Wondolleck | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 17.5% | 25.5% | 17.3% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.4% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 18.5% | 18.3% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Nina Alpert | 4.1% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 16.2% | 17.2% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Justina Leo | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 14.6% | 19.2% | 21.6% | 10.3% |
| Natalie Davidson | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 59.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.