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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego2.89+0.91vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine1.71+1.36vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-1.11vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.78-0.06vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.33+0.84vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.56-2.74vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.70-1.39vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.42-2.93vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.10-4.80vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-1.64-3.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.91University of California at San Diego2.890.5%1st Place
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3.36University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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2.89University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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4.94University of Southern California0.780.0%1st Place
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6.84University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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5.26University of California at Berkeley0.560.1%1st Place
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7.61University of California at Berkeley-0.700.0%1st Place
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7.07University of California at Los Angeles-0.420.0%1st Place
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6.2Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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8.91University of California at Santa Barbara-1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Morris | 48.7% | 28.0% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 13.9% | 19.5% | 23.9% | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 19.8% | 25.1% | 22.6% | 17.9% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 4.4% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 12.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Christopher Keefe | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 19.8% | 18.9% | 8.5% |
| Nina Alpert | 5.5% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 17.7% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Janice Wondolleck | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 19.9% | 23.8% | 17.2% |
| Justina Leo | 1.6% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 18.7% | 21.4% | 10.8% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 2.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 15.8% | 19.2% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 4.1% |
| Natalie Davidson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 9.1% | 17.4% | 57.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.