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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego2.89+0.90vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine1.71+1.34vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-1.10vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley-0.70+2.64vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.33+0.85vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.78-2.11vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.10-1.82vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.56-4.72vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-0.42-3.91vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-1.64-3.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.9University of California at San Diego2.890.5%1st Place
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3.34University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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2.9University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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7.64University of California at Berkeley-0.700.0%1st Place
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6.85University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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4.89University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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6.18Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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5.28University of California at Berkeley0.560.0%1st Place
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7.09University of California at Los Angeles-0.420.0%1st Place
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8.92University of California at Santa Barbara-1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Morris | 48.5% | 28.4% | 13.2% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Heller | 14.1% | 19.9% | 23.7% | 17.6% | 14.5% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 19.0% | 24.9% | 23.8% | 18.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Janice Wondolleck | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 16.7% | 26.6% | 17.7% |
| Christopher Keefe | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 18.6% | 20.9% | 7.7% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 16.0% | 17.9% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 2.2% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 17.0% | 9.8% | 3.7% |
| Nina Alpert | 4.0% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Justina Leo | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 17.7% | 21.2% | 10.6% |
| Natalie Davidson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 58.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.