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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego2.89+0.92vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+0.91vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.56+2.43vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine1.71-0.60vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.33+0.95vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-0.70+0.56vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.10-1.76vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.78-4.08vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.17-3.29vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-1.64-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.92University of California at San Diego2.890.5%1st Place
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2.91University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.2%1st Place
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5.43University of California at Berkeley0.560.0%1st Place
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3.4University of California at Irvine1.710.1%1st Place
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6.95University of California at San Diego-0.330.0%1st Place
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7.56University of California at Berkeley-0.700.0%1st Place
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6.24Arizona State University0.100.0%1st Place
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4.92University of Southern California0.780.1%1st Place
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6.71University of California at Los Angeles-0.170.0%1st Place
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8.95University of California at Santa Barbara-1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Morris | 49.4% | 25.6% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 19.8% | 26.0% | 22.1% | 16.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nina Alpert | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 17.6% | 17.9% | 16.1% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 1.2% |
| Samuel Heller | 12.1% | 20.5% | 24.2% | 19.1% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Keefe | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 19.9% | 21.3% | 8.7% |
| Janice Wondolleck | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 26.5% | 18.7% |
| Chad Hardgrove | 2.0% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 16.3% | 20.2% | 15.3% | 10.2% | 4.5% |
| Olivia Gebelein | 5.2% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 16.5% | 18.9% | 15.9% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Gabrielle Robertson | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 19.5% | 17.7% | 6.2% |
| Natalie Davidson | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 15.0% | 60.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.