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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin3.04+6.50vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+2.30vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24+3.78vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.65+4.92vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.46+4.57vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.50vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.38-0.70vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.15-0.83vs Predicted
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9Fordham University3.11-1.76vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.97-2.12vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan3.02-3.30vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.48-2.20vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-4.87vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.77-5.51vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.30-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.5University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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4.3Old Dominion University4.010.2%1st Place
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6.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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8.92Stanford University2.650.0%1st Place
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9.57Washington College2.460.0%1st Place
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7.5SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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6.3U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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7.17Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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7.24Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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7.88Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.7University of Michigan3.020.1%1st Place
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9.8Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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8.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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8.49University of South Florida2.770.0%1st Place
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12.73Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Trepton | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 19.5% | 17.0% | 13.8% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| John Ortel | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 6.6% |
| Samuel Bedinger | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 9.5% |
| Tyler Steel | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Taylor Vann | 10.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| Connor Godfrey | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Price | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| Ryan Seago | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 9.3% |
| Andrew Bates | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 3.7% |
| Bryan White | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 3.9% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 51.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.