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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University4.01+3.35vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan3.02+4.53vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.46+5.52vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin3.04+2.64vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.65+2.99vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.48+2.43vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.38-1.63vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-1.16vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.97-2.09vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida2.77-2.38vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.15-4.58vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-5.87vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.11-6.74vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.30-2.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Old Dominion University4.010.2%1st Place
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7.25SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.53University of Michigan3.020.1%1st Place
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9.52Washington College2.460.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Wisconsin3.040.1%1st Place
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8.99Stanford University2.650.0%1st Place
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9.43Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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7.84U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.1%1st Place
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7.91Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.62University of South Florida2.770.0%1st Place
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7.42Roger Williams University3.150.1%1st Place
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7.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.1%1st Place
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7.26Fordham University3.110.1%1st Place
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12.74Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Paiva | 18.4% | 18.2% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Steel | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Seago | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% |
| Samuel Bedinger | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| John Ortel | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 5.7% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 9.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Bates | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 1.6% |
| Christopher Price | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| Bryan White | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% |
| Andrew Tamblyn | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Eddie Cox | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Connor Godfrey | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 51.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.