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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.63+6.25vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.98+3.98vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.44+1.72vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.02+5.32vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.11+4.13vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.76+4.25vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77-0.21vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.85+1.98vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.44-4.29vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.04-0.63vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.72-3.91vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-1.15vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.92-6.36vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.02-1.72vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.15-9.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.25SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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5.98Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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4.72Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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9.32Stanford University2.020.0%1st Place
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9.13Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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10.25Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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6.79Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.98University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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4.71U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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9.37Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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7.09University of Wisconsin2.720.1%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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6.64Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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12.28Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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5.64University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Paxton | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Stewart Draheim | 9.0% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Colin MURPHY | 15.2% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Kohrman | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 5.7% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 11.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 8.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.9% |
| Michael Popp | 15.1% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 6.3% |
| Brendan Boylan | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| Zach Runci | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| John Koehler | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 16.4% | 37.8% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 11.0% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.