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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.02+8.18vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.44+2.66vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.63+4.30vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.44+0.78vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.15+0.73vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.98+0.20vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.04+2.23vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin2.72-0.97vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.76+1.20vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.92-3.56vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-4.05vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.11-2.61vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-2.22vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.85-4.09vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.18Stanford University2.020.0%1st Place
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4.66Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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7.3SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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4.78U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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5.73University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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6.2Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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9.23Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Wisconsin2.720.1%1st Place
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10.2Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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6.44Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.95Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.39Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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10.78U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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9.91University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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12.22Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Kohrman | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.5% |
| Colin MURPHY | 14.8% | 15.6% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Michael Popp | 16.3% | 14.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 12.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Draheim | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% |
| Brendan Boylan | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 10.2% |
| Zach Runci | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 5.5% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 14.0% | 15.1% | 16.6% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% |
| John Koehler | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 16.8% | 38.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.