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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+3.67vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida3.15+3.39vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.11+5.95vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.98+2.11vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.38vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.92+0.31vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.02+2.19vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.76+2.16vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.44-4.40vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.04-0.65vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-0.51vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.37-3.65vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan1.85-2.93vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.77-7.21vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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5.39University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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8.95Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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6.11Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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7.38SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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6.31Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.19Stanford University2.020.1%1st Place
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10.16Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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4.6Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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9.35Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
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10.07University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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6.79Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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12.2Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 15.2% | 16.5% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 11.7% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Julia Paxton | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Zach Runci | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Max Kohrman | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 5.6% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 14.5% | 10.6% |
| Colin MURPHY | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 15.7% |
| John Kinzel | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 11.4% |
| Duncan Howes | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| John Koehler | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 39.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.