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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+3.67vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.44+2.55vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.92+3.21vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.98+2.06vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.37vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.77+0.79vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.02+2.25vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.11+1.03vs Predicted
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9Fordham University2.04+0.19vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.15-4.35vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-0.54vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.85-1.89vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.37-4.62vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.76-3.89vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-2.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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4.55Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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6.21Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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6.06Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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7.37SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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6.79Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.25Stanford University2.020.0%1st Place
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9.03Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.19Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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5.65University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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10.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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8.38University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
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10.11Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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12.17Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 15.3% | 16.1% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Colin MURPHY | 16.1% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 9.5% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Draheim | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Duncan Howes | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Max Kohrman | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 6.6% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 4.7% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 10.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 14.7% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 11.7% |
| John Kinzel | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 11.1% |
| John Koehler | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 38.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.