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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.98+5.05vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.92+4.15vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.44+1.61vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.15+1.55vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+2.39vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.44-1.36vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.11+1.94vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan1.85+1.88vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.02+0.23vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65+0.54vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-4.16vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.37-3.67vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.04-3.50vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.76-3.85vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.15Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.61U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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5.55University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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7.39SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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4.64Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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8.94Roger Williams University2.110.1%1st Place
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9.88University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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9.23Stanford University2.020.0%1st Place
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10.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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6.84Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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8.33University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
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9.5Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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10.15Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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12.19Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 10.4% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Zach Runci | 7.7% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Michael Popp | 15.5% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Colin MURPHY | 14.9% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 5.7% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.6% |
| Max Kohrman | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 5.0% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| John Kinzel | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.2% |
| Alex Reynolds | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 12.7% |
| John Koehler | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 16.8% | 38.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.