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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.44+3.68vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.02+7.12vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.44+1.55vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.04+5.17vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.98+1.22vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.63+1.26vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.37+1.09vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.77-1.18vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan1.85+0.80vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.92-3.62vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida3.15-5.35vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.11-2.73vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.65-2.32vs Predicted
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14Washington College1.76-3.87vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-2.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68U. S. Naval Academy3.440.2%1st Place
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9.12Stanford University2.020.0%1st Place
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4.55Dartmouth College3.440.2%1st Place
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9.17Fordham University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.22Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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7.26SUNY Maritime College2.630.1%1st Place
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8.09University of Wisconsin2.370.1%1st Place
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6.82Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.8University of Michigan1.850.0%1st Place
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6.38Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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5.65University of South Florida3.150.1%1st Place
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9.27Roger Williams University2.110.0%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.650.0%1st Place
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10.13Washington College1.760.0%1st Place
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12.18Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Popp | 16.4% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Max Kohrman | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 5.8% |
| Colin MURPHY | 17.4% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Reynolds | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% |
| Stewart Draheim | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Julia Paxton | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| John Kinzel | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Etheridge | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 7.9% |
| Zach Runci | 8.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Mohney | 10.4% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Ian Hollerbach | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 5.8% |
| Francois Conde-Jahn | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 14.4% | 16.5% |
| Thomas Heist | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 11.8% |
| John Koehler | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 16.1% | 37.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.