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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.82+4.46vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.49+4.49vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.22+1.39vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.55+2.73vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.87+3.45vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.61+0.13vs Predicted
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7Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26-0.23vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University0.12+2.71vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.72-0.59vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.97-1.76vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University1.31-3.27vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.18-5.12vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-0.84vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.17-3.13vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.68-1.21vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.57-3.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46Brown University1.8212.8%1st Place
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6.49Northwestern University1.498.5%1st Place
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4.39Brown University2.2217.3%1st Place
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6.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.557.6%1st Place
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8.45University of Vermont0.874.5%1st Place
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6.13University of Rhode Island1.619.6%1st Place
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6.77Palm Beach Atlantic University1.267.8%1st Place
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10.71Northeastern University0.121.8%1st Place
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8.41Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.725.3%1st Place
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8.24Boston University0.975.1%1st Place
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7.73Salve Regina University1.315.8%1st Place
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6.88Tufts University1.187.5%1st Place
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12.16SUNY Stony Brook-0.281.8%1st Place
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10.87Northwestern University0.172.8%1st Place
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13.79SUNY Stony Brook-0.680.7%1st Place
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12.78Princeton University-0.571.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Styron | 12.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 17.3% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Miles Williams | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Green | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Samuel Rooks | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 5.7% |
| Tyler Egeli | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Nils Tullberg | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 19.3% | 16.7% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 7.5% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 42.8% |
| William Roberts | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 22.4% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.