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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.22+3.20vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.61+3.99vs Predicted
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3Salve Regina University1.31+4.67vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.82+1.42vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.55+1.56vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.18+1.07vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.87+1.52vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49-1.56vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.72-0.67vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.48-0.94vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.17-0.10vs Predicted
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12Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26-5.27vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University0.12-2.34vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-1.72vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.68-1.38vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.57-3.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2Brown University2.2218.4%1st Place
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5.99University of Rhode Island1.619.4%1st Place
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7.67Salve Regina University1.316.5%1st Place
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5.42Brown University1.8212.2%1st Place
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6.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.559.0%1st Place
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7.07Tufts University1.186.9%1st Place
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8.52University of Vermont0.874.8%1st Place
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6.44Northwestern University1.497.8%1st Place
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8.33Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.724.7%1st Place
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9.06Boston University0.484.7%1st Place
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10.9Northwestern University0.172.5%1st Place
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6.73Palm Beach Atlantic University1.267.4%1st Place
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10.66Northeastern University0.122.6%1st Place
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12.28SUNY Stony Brook-0.281.4%1st Place
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13.62SUNY Stony Brook-0.680.9%1st Place
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12.55Princeton University-0.571.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 18.4% | 16.2% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nils Tullberg | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Styron | 12.2% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Elliott | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Shea Smith | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Egeli | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| William Wiegand | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
| Matthew Beretta | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 8.0% |
| Thomas Green | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Rooks | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 6.8% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 19.2% | 38.5% |
| William Roberts | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 19.8% | 22.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.