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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.11+5.28vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.05+8.83vs Predicted
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3Stanford University4.19+3.07vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.90+7.47vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.01+1.88vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.88+1.17vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.61vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.73+0.08vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.17+1.05vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.30-0.43vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.05-0.29vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.02-0.67vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.32+0.61vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.82-2.06vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.11-0.66vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.74-8.43vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.89-5.55vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College3.18-7.96vs Predicted
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19Columbia University2.43-5.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28College of Charleston4.110.1%1st Place
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10.83Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.07Stanford University4.190.1%1st Place
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11.47Bowdoin College2.900.0%1st Place
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6.88Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.17Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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9.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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8.08Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.05University of South Florida3.170.0%1st Place
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9.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.300.0%1st Place
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10.71Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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11.33University of Rhode Island3.020.0%1st Place
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13.61Boston University2.320.0%1st Place
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11.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.820.0%1st Place
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14.34Fordham University2.110.0%1st Place
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7.57Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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11.45Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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10.04Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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13.01Columbia University2.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Banholzer | 9.5% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Drew Shea | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% |
| Kieran Chung | 12.0% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Peter Edmunds | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Erika Reineke | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Pearson Potts | 11.3% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Elliott Morrill | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Connor Brady | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Jacob La Dow | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| Chanel Miller | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% |
| Ian Paice | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 17.6% |
| Chloe Lepert | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% |
| Mia Cooper | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 28.5% |
| Marlena Fauer | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Tony Collins | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% |
| John Renehan | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Irene Jacqz | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 13.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.