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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.22+3.35vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.61+4.03vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.82+2.47vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.55+2.88vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.49+1.67vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.18+1.15vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.97+1.04vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.72+0.46vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.87-0.42vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.31-2.03vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University0.12-0.31vs Predicted
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12Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26-4.88vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.45-3.49vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook-0.28-1.62vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.68-1.14vs Predicted
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16Princeton University-0.57-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Brown University2.2218.4%1st Place
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6.03University of Rhode Island1.6110.1%1st Place
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5.47Brown University1.8211.6%1st Place
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6.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.558.2%1st Place
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6.67Northwestern University1.498.0%1st Place
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7.15Tufts University1.187.1%1st Place
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8.04Boston University0.975.3%1st Place
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8.46Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.725.1%1st Place
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8.58University of Vermont0.874.8%1st Place
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7.97Salve Regina University1.316.0%1st Place
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10.69Northeastern University0.122.1%1st Place
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7.12Palm Beach Atlantic University1.266.7%1st Place
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9.51Northwestern University0.453.4%1st Place
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12.38SUNY Stony Brook-0.281.8%1st Place
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13.86SUNY Stony Brook-0.680.8%1st Place
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12.82Princeton University-0.570.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 18.4% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Miles Williams | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Styron | 11.6% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Elliott | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Egeli | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Nils Tullberg | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Samuel Rooks | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 5.7% |
| Thomas Green | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nikolas Chambers | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 3.1% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 15.8% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 18.6% | 44.5% |
| William Roberts | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 22.8% | 24.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.