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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+6.58vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+2.00vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.83+3.31vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.29+0.76vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston2.93+1.11vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.98-0.17vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.74-0.38vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38+0.04vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.09-0.01vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.63-2.85vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.21-2.42vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.31-3.48vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.40-4.83vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.34-5.92vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.85-8.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.1%1st Place
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5.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Miami2.830.1%1st Place
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5.76Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.11College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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6.83Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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7.62Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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9.99U. S. Naval Academy2.090.0%1st Place
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8.15Roger Williams University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.58Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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9.52University of South Florida2.310.0%1st Place
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9.17Old Dominion University2.400.0%1st Place
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9.08Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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7.25Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Lyon | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 14.1% | 16.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Taylor Scheuermann | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Emily Billing | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Kayla Gibson | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Mariel Marchand | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Devon Rohde | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Emma Ferris | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 15.3% |
| Abby Preston | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% |
| Erica Lush | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 14.4% |
| Ali Yarbrough | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 12.4% |
| Rachel Austin | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% |
| Elise Gehling | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.