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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.68vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.40+6.73vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.98+3.71vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+1.12vs Predicted
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5University of Miami2.83+2.46vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38+3.11vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.34+2.00vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+0.72vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.63-0.93vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston2.93-2.93vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.21-1.37vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy2.09-1.68vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.31-4.48vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University2.74-7.34vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.85-8.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.68Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.73Old Dominion University2.400.0%1st Place
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6.71Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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5.12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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7.46University of Miami2.830.1%1st Place
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9.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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9.0Northeastern University2.340.1%1st Place
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8.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.1%1st Place
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8.07Roger Williams University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.07College of Charleston2.930.1%1st Place
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9.63Boston University2.210.0%1st Place
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10.32U. S. Naval Academy2.090.0%1st Place
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9.52University of South Florida2.310.0%1st Place
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7.66Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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7.21Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Billing | 11.4% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.7% |
| Mariel Marchand | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Mayumi Roller | 14.3% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Taylor Scheuermann | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% |
| Devon Rohde | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% |
| Elise Gehling | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% |
| Brooke Lyon | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% |
| Abby Preston | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Kayla Gibson | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Erica Lush | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 15.3% |
| Emma Ferris | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 17.6% |
| Ali Yarbrough | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 12.2% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.