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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+3.37vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island0.30+5.50vs Predicted
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3Fairfield University0.42+3.78vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College0.18+4.34vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.93+0.54vs Predicted
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6Tufts University0.96-0.60vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.83-0.86vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University0.12+0.39vs Predicted
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9Boston College1.74-5.35vs Predicted
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10Tufts University0.38-2.49vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-1.69+2.65vs Predicted
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12Boston University-0.64-1.24vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University-1.01-1.31vs Predicted
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14Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.33-1.18vs Predicted
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15Williams College-1.24-2.55vs Predicted
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16University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.52-2.82vs Predicted
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17University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.27-2.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.37Northwestern University1.4914.8%1st Place
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7.5University of Rhode Island0.305.8%1st Place
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6.78Fairfield University0.426.3%1st Place
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8.34Dartmouth College0.184.3%1st Place
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5.54Tufts University0.9310.1%1st Place
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5.4Tufts University0.9610.8%1st Place
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6.14Dartmouth College0.838.5%1st Place
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8.39Northeastern University0.124.2%1st Place
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3.65Boston College1.7422.1%1st Place
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7.51Tufts University0.385.9%1st Place
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13.65Middlebury College-1.690.9%1st Place
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10.76Boston University-0.641.6%1st Place
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11.69Salve Regina University-1.011.5%1st Place
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12.82Worcester Polytechnic Institute-1.330.9%1st Place
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12.45Williams College-1.241.2%1st Place
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13.18University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.520.8%1st Place
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14.83University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.270.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 14.8% | 15.2% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Weinberg | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Haley Andreasen | 10.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Garrido | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Long | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rooks | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Matt Budington | 22.1% | 19.2% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Kaya Prager | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dalyan Yet | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 18.8% | 20.1% |
| Josh Sultanik | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 4.3% |
| Christopher Fletcher | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 15.7% | 10.0% |
| Alex Von Lehe | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 8.3% |
| Patrick Whyte | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 15.5% | 15.6% | 14.1% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 17.8% | 41.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.