Race 1A

roger-williams-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charles Nunn 10.3% 10.9% 11.0% 9.7% 9.6% 10.4% 9.9% 10.0% 8.5% 5.1% 3.1% 1.4% 0.1%
Sarah Williams 18.2% 14.6% 13.6% 12.7% 12.6% 8.2% 6.5% 6.7% 3.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Timothy Harding 7.8% 9.6% 11.2% 8.4% 9.3% 9.4% 10.0% 10.0% 10.9% 7.5% 4.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Matthew Paige 8.4% 8.8% 8.9% 10.8% 9.6% 9.0% 9.3% 8.9% 11.1% 8.2% 5.4% 1.4% 0.2%
Campbell Duffy 7.0% 6.7% 6.5% 7.9% 8.3% 8.2% 8.6% 9.5% 12.5% 11.0% 9.5% 3.6% 0.7%
A. Tucker Atterbury 9.8% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 9.7% 9.4% 11.2% 8.7% 7.7% 7.1% 4.9% 1.4% 0.1%
John McGlynn 11.5% 11.5% 9.7% 10.5% 9.3% 10.7% 9.8% 8.6% 8.4% 5.5% 3.6% 0.9% 0.0%
James Moody 12.6% 13.0% 11.8% 10.7% 11.1% 11.9% 8.7% 8.2% 5.6% 3.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1%
John Silvestri 8.1% 7.0% 8.6% 9.7% 9.3% 9.0% 11.4% 9.5% 8.7% 10.3% 5.5% 2.4% 0.5%
James Fales 0.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.6% 3.8% 4.9% 8.9% 17.1% 30.3% 21.1%
Genevieve Marquardt 3.4% 2.5% 3.6% 5.5% 5.1% 5.8% 6.1% 9.0% 10.0% 16.1% 16.2% 12.7% 4.0%
Karl Ryder 1.5% 2.1% 2.4% 2.4% 3.0% 5.1% 4.8% 5.7% 6.4% 10.7% 20.7% 25.3% 9.9%
Emmet Austin 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 2.2% 3.4% 6.5% 18.4% 63.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.