Race 2A

roger-williams-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Charles Nunn 10.7% 9.6% 11.2% 10.8% 9.8% 10.4% 9.8% 9.7% 7.3% 5.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.1%
Timothy Harding 8.1% 9.6% 10.1% 9.3% 10.5% 10.3% 8.3% 11.2% 8.6% 7.9% 3.8% 1.8% 0.5%
Campbell Duffy 4.6% 6.1% 7.7% 8.1% 8.3% 8.6% 8.9% 8.6% 12.7% 12.7% 8.2% 5.0% 0.5%
A. Tucker Atterbury 9.0% 9.1% 10.1% 11.3% 9.1% 10.1% 9.5% 9.5% 8.8% 8.1% 3.5% 1.6% 0.3%
John Silvestri 9.3% 7.6% 9.5% 9.6% 10.0% 7.5% 9.1% 11.2% 9.6% 8.3% 6.1% 1.8% 0.4%
Sarah Williams 17.6% 18.8% 12.2% 12.5% 11.4% 7.8% 6.5% 5.9% 4.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Karl Ryder 2.9% 1.6% 3.5% 3.1% 3.5% 4.6% 4.7% 5.4% 7.6% 11.3% 21.1% 22.0% 8.7%
James Moody 13.4% 12.6% 11.9% 10.0% 10.4% 10.8% 11.4% 7.8% 6.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Matthew Paige 8.4% 8.9% 8.8% 9.4% 9.0% 10.5% 11.5% 7.9% 8.3% 10.5% 4.3% 2.0% 0.5%
John McGlynn 11.6% 11.4% 10.0% 9.4% 10.7% 9.5% 8.4% 10.2% 8.0% 5.6% 3.8% 0.9% 0.5%
James Fales 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5% 2.9% 4.4% 4.2% 6.3% 8.2% 16.5% 30.9% 18.7%
Genevieve Marquardt 2.8% 3.0% 3.4% 4.2% 3.9% 6.0% 6.5% 7.1% 10.6% 13.2% 19.4% 14.9% 5.0%
Emmet Austin 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 2.0% 3.1% 7.3% 16.8% 64.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.