Race 3A

roger-williams-invitational

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Timothy Harding 8.4% 9.4% 9.8% 9.1% 8.9% 10.3% 8.9% 10.7% 9.6% 7.8% 4.3% 2.6% 0.2%
Campbell Duffy 5.8% 5.4% 8.3% 7.4% 6.5% 8.1% 9.0% 11.3% 10.2% 12.9% 9.3% 4.8% 1.0%
Sarah Williams 16.8% 16.0% 13.8% 11.4% 12.5% 9.1% 7.3% 5.9% 4.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Matthew Paige 9.2% 7.3% 8.6% 10.9% 10.4% 8.9% 10.3% 8.8% 8.8% 8.2% 6.3% 2.0% 0.3%
A. Tucker Atterbury 10.0% 10.6% 9.8% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 11.3% 9.6% 7.8% 7.8% 4.5% 2.1% 0.1%
John McGlynn 10.4% 11.2% 10.0% 10.8% 10.8% 10.0% 8.7% 8.7% 8.1% 6.3% 3.3% 1.6% 0.1%
James Moody 12.8% 13.2% 11.0% 10.1% 11.4% 11.4% 8.1% 6.4% 7.7% 4.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1%
James Goodson 3.7% 6.4% 4.8% 6.4% 4.5% 6.8% 9.2% 9.9% 11.8% 12.9% 14.4% 8.1% 1.1%
Charles Nunn 10.4% 10.1% 10.8% 10.2% 8.9% 11.2% 9.8% 7.9% 7.1% 7.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4%
John Silvestri 9.1% 7.2% 9.2% 9.1% 10.6% 8.0% 8.3% 10.0% 10.0% 9.0% 5.7% 2.9% 0.9%
James Fales 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.8% 2.6% 3.2% 4.8% 5.7% 7.8% 17.3% 31.2% 19.2%
Karl Ryder 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% 4.8% 5.0% 7.2% 10.0% 21.2% 25.4% 10.7%
Emmet Austin 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 2.0% 2.4% 6.6% 17.2% 65.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.