Race 4A

roger-williams-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

30.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Timothy Harding 8.4% 10.5% 8.6% 9.8% 9.8% 8.1% 9.9% 9.2% 10.1% 9.0% 3.8% 2.2% 0.6%
Sarah Williams 18.0% 14.9% 14.4% 12.8% 10.2% 8.6% 7.7% 6.2% 3.6% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0%
John Silvestri 6.7% 8.9% 9.4% 8.0% 9.4% 8.3% 9.5% 9.8% 10.2% 10.6% 5.9% 2.9% 0.4%
Matthew Paige 8.1% 9.1% 9.4% 10.1% 9.5% 9.2% 10.0% 7.4% 10.3% 7.8% 6.4% 2.3% 0.4%
James Goodson 5.2% 5.2% 5.8% 5.4% 6.3% 7.4% 6.4% 9.9% 10.7% 12.4% 14.7% 9.3% 1.3%
James Moody 12.6% 12.0% 13.0% 11.7% 10.6% 9.2% 8.6% 7.6% 5.9% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
John McGlynn 11.4% 10.4% 9.7% 11.3% 8.4% 11.6% 9.1% 7.8% 8.3% 6.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3%
A. Tucker Atterbury 10.0% 9.2% 9.0% 10.1% 9.7% 9.9% 11.3% 9.8% 8.0% 6.8% 4.3% 1.5% 0.4%
Campbell Duffy 6.2% 6.3% 6.1% 7.3% 7.7% 7.6% 9.9% 9.8% 11.2% 10.2% 12.0% 5.3% 0.4%
Emmet Austin 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 2.3% 2.4% 3.0% 6.9% 16.8% 63.1%
Karl Ryder 2.3% 1.7% 2.0% 2.9% 5.0% 4.4% 4.6% 5.5% 7.3% 12.3% 21.3% 21.5% 9.2%
James Fales 1.0% 1.3% 1.9% 0.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.5% 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 13.8% 34.2% 23.4%
Charles Nunn 9.9% 10.0% 9.9% 9.1% 9.9% 11.7% 9.2% 10.2% 7.5% 7.2% 3.4% 1.7% 0.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.