← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.66+1.34vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.20vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22-0.11vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-0.33vs Predicted
-
5Fordham University1.85-0.32vs Predicted
-
6University of Rochester-1.11+1.97vs Predicted
-
7American University1.85-2.18vs Predicted
-
10Drexel University-0.82-2.27vs Predicted
-
11Columbia University-0.77-3.31vs Predicted
-
12University of Rochester-1.11-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.34U. S. Naval Academy3.660.4%1st Place
-
3.2SUNY Maritime College3.060.2%1st Place
-
2.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.2%1st Place
-
3.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
-
4.68Fordham University1.850.1%1st Place
-
7.97University of Rochester-1.110.0%1st Place
-
4.82American University1.850.1%1st Place
-
7.73Drexel University-0.820.0%1st Place
-
7.69Columbia University-0.770.0%1st Place
-
7.97University of Rochester-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Carminati | 35.3% | 26.2% | 18.7% | 11.4% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 15.7% | 20.5% | 21.6% | 20.7% | 14.0% | 6.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Zacher | 23.0% | 22.4% | 21.2% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 13.1% | 14.7% | 16.4% | 21.7% | 18.8% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 5.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 20.4% | 28.5% | 10.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jessica King | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 22.0% | 30.6% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
| Russell Gasdia | 5.9% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 23.0% | 32.1% | 8.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Gibbons | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 5.7% | 26.9% | 31.8% | 31.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Barczewski | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 28.6% | 33.8% | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| Jessica King | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 22.0% | 30.6% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.