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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.20+1.61vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.67+1.61vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.18+1.36vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley-0.09+0.82vs Predicted
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5Oregon State University-1.00+1.51vs Predicted
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6University of Oregon0.32-2.02vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.24-2.70vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University-0.63-2.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.61California Poly Maritime Academy1.2030.3%1st Place
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3.61Western Washington University0.6716.7%1st Place
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4.36University of Washington0.1811.7%1st Place
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4.82University of California at Berkeley-0.098.5%1st Place
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6.51Oregon State University-1.002.7%1st Place
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3.98University of Oregon0.3213.8%1st Place
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4.3University of California at Santa Cruz0.2411.4%1st Place
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5.82Northwestern University-0.635.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Downey | 30.3% | 25.5% | 18.3% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Dalton Lovett | 16.7% | 16.8% | 17.1% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 1.8% |
| Jaden Unruh | 11.7% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 14.8% | 16.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 6.2% |
| Ethan Lisle | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 17.0% | 16.3% | 10.7% |
| Quincy Spurlock | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 18.2% | 46.9% |
| Dylan Murphy | 13.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 15.4% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% |
| Hunter Holguin | 11.4% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 5.5% |
| Luke Notkin | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 23.5% | 25.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.