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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.03+7.62vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.01+3.03vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.10+1.81vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.71+6.03vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.18+3.23vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.71+3.98vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.23+5.09vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College3.14+0.50vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.75+0.67vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.50+0.86vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.53-0.25vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.32+0.05vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.52+1.50vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University2.97-5.97vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-9.02vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.47-6.08vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.01-9.32vs Predicted
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19Boston University1.11-3.01vs Predicted
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20Northeastern University1.83-6.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.030.0%1st Place
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5.03Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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4.81Yale University4.100.2%1st Place
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10.03Georgetown University2.710.0%1st Place
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8.23Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.98Roger Williams University2.710.0%1st Place
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12.09University of Rhode Island2.230.0%1st Place
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8.5Eckerd College3.140.1%1st Place
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9.67Connecticut College2.750.0%1st Place
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10.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.500.0%1st Place
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10.75Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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12.05Tufts University2.320.0%1st Place
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14.5University of Vermont1.520.0%1st Place
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9.03Old Dominion University2.970.1%1st Place
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6.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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10.92Eckerd College2.470.0%1st Place
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8.68Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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15.99Boston University1.110.0%1st Place
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13.27Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Shanahan | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Erika Reineke | 14.4% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Kiss | 16.7% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Taselaar | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Annie Schmidt | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Mackenzie Needham | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% |
| Melany Johnson | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Liz Dubovik | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Lauren Cefali | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Caitlin Watson | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Margaret Bacon | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 4.4% |
| Jana Gailiunas | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 21.6% |
| Andrea Luna | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Hanna Vincent | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Amy Baxter | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Anna Booras | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 14.5% | 39.3% |
| Heidi Hood | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 11.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.