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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+8.62vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+6.73vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont3.41+8.12vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.52+6.29vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.52+5.33vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University3.26+5.60vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University3.36+3.81vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.16+4.36vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.92-0.77vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.95-2.03vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.48+4.36vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.03+0.75vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island3.05-0.22vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.96-0.41vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College3.18-2.58vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-2.21vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.44-6.12vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.23-6.25vs Predicted
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19Yale University3.57-9.22vs Predicted
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20Eckerd College2.43-4.04vs Predicted
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21SUNY Maritime College3.06-8.38vs Predicted
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22St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-11.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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8.73Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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11.12University of Vermont3.410.0%1st Place
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10.29Bowdoin College3.520.1%1st Place
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10.33Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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11.6Northeastern University3.260.0%1st Place
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10.81Salve Regina University3.360.1%1st Place
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12.36Harvard University3.160.0%1st Place
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8.23Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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7.97Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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15.36Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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12.75Boston University3.030.0%1st Place
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12.78University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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13.59Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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12.42Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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13.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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10.88Stanford University3.440.0%1st Place
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11.75Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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9.78Yale University3.570.1%1st Place
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15.96Eckerd College2.430.0%1st Place
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12.62SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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10.27St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Nate Jermain | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Michael Croteau | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Willem Sandberg | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| Kyle Carney | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Gram Slattery | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| William Bailey | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| William Macdonald | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 15.7% |
| Ian Towill | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% |
| John Renehan | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% |
| Axel Sly | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Rice | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| Max Nickbarg | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Walker Banks | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 20.8% |
| Tyler Steel | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.