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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.2%
Within 2 Positions
5.4
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+9.82vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.12+4.86vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College2.89+10.32vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.70+4.82vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University2.54+9.66vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.90+6.98vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont2.78+6.11vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.06+4.19vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.73-0.37vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.17+1.37vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.11+0.57vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.87+1.02vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.79-4.64vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.29-2.81vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.41-4.39vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.05-3.96vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.74-3.11vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College3.23-6.94vs Predicted
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19U. S. Naval Academy3.34-8.58vs Predicted
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20Northeastern University2.84-6.65vs Predicted
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21Cornell University1.74-3.14vs Predicted
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22U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-15.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.0%1st Place
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6.86Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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13.32Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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8.82Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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14.66Salve Regina University2.540.0%1st Place
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12.98Bowdoin College2.900.0%1st Place
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13.11University of Vermont2.780.0%1st Place
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12.19Stanford University3.060.0%1st Place
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8.63Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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11.37Old Dominion University3.170.0%1st Place
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11.57Dartmouth College3.110.0%1st Place
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13.02University of Rhode Island2.870.0%1st Place
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8.36Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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11.19Yale University3.290.0%1st Place
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10.61Tufts University3.410.0%1st Place
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12.04Brown University3.050.0%1st Place
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13.89SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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11.06Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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10.42U. S. Naval Academy3.340.0%1st Place
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13.35Northeastern University2.840.0%1st Place
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17.86Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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6.87U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| Raul Rios | 11.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tony Collins | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 4.0% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Robert Lippincott | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% |
| Peter Edmunds | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| Colby Vavolotis | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% |
| Yuki Yoshiyasu | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Connor Corgard | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Evan Hoffmann | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% |
| Bo McClatchy | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% |
| Ryan Hughes | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Emily Billing | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Dan Nickerson | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Drew Shea | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% |
| Mike Carr | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.5% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Devin Laviano | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Conor Lodge | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 5.0% |
| Colin Keil | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 12.4% | 39.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.