Race 1B

central-fall-2

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

54.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Emma Ferris 16.3% 17.8% 17.0% 14.3% 14.1% 9.6% 5.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Marissa Golison 28.8% 22.4% 16.7% 12.3% 9.4% 5.9% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Christian Geary 15.4% 15.8% 17.2% 13.5% 11.9% 11.9% 8.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Trevor VonKaenel 3.5% 5.6% 5.6% 7.1% 7.2% 10.5% 13.1% 15.9% 16.3% 10.8% 4.4%
Jennifer Kempton 6.4% 6.2% 7.5% 8.5% 11.6% 10.8% 14.0% 12.6% 12.2% 8.3% 1.9%
Sarah Gross 1.8% 2.9% 2.8% 5.1% 5.3% 7.1% 9.1% 11.2% 17.4% 23.5% 13.8%
Courtney Williams 5.7% 5.5% 6.6% 7.4% 10.2% 11.4% 14.3% 13.6% 13.0% 8.7% 3.6%
Chris Myers 12.5% 12.4% 14.3% 14.1% 13.2% 10.9% 8.7% 8.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.3%
Mary Buhl 6.6% 8.3% 7.8% 11.8% 10.8% 12.6% 12.4% 13.3% 9.0% 6.1% 1.3%
Siobhan Ryan 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 4.5% 4.9% 6.7% 8.3% 12.6% 17.5% 26.1% 11.1%
James Rush 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 2.6% 2.9% 4.6% 7.0% 14.3% 63.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.