Race 1A

fj-firefly-invite-mit

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Christopher Ford 15.7% 15.3% 15.5% 14.0% 10.1% 7.4% 7.6% 5.1% 4.4% 2.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Thomas Presti 4.8% 7.2% 6.2% 7.4% 7.7% 6.7% 8.4% 9.1% 8.0% 7.5% 8.7% 5.4% 5.3% 3.5% 3.0% 1.1%
Brendan Cook 22.0% 18.9% 15.0% 14.1% 10.4% 8.2% 4.3% 2.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colin Henderson 2.0% 2.1% 4.3% 3.0% 5.2% 5.0% 5.7% 5.7% 6.5% 8.1% 7.9% 8.5% 8.8% 10.3% 8.1% 8.8%
Ellen Kintz 2.9% 2.2% 4.1% 3.5% 5.3% 5.1% 6.5% 6.1% 8.1% 7.6% 8.8% 8.2% 8.7% 8.3% 9.2% 5.4%
James McAndrew 2.9% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 4.6% 6.8% 6.5% 6.2% 7.4% 6.9% 7.4% 8.1% 10.4% 9.0% 9.1% 6.2%
Alexander Rudkin 6.8% 8.0% 6.9% 6.7% 8.3% 9.9% 8.7% 9.0% 8.6% 7.4% 6.9% 4.5% 4.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Christopher Jensen 9.5% 11.3% 10.4% 10.2% 9.0% 10.6% 10.3% 7.7% 6.6% 5.3% 3.6% 3.0% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
John McGlynn 15.1% 14.2% 13.8% 11.2% 11.2% 10.3% 7.3% 5.8% 4.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Jeremy Kalas 2.4% 2.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.4% 4.0% 3.6% 6.0% 5.6% 7.4% 7.7% 10.2% 11.2% 11.6% 9.8% 9.1%
Nicholaus Pehr 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 4.3% 3.5% 4.3% 4.3% 7.4% 6.9% 10.3% 14.7% 30.2%
Johannes Raatz 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 6.9% 8.3% 7.3% 9.3% 7.9% 6.5% 7.8% 9.0% 6.6% 5.5% 4.3% 2.4% 1.5%
Tyler Durant 1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 4.0% 4.2% 4.3% 5.4% 5.6% 7.4% 6.7% 9.4% 10.0% 8.6% 9.4% 9.5% 8.6%
Marina Crowe 2.3% 1.6% 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1% 4.5% 6.1% 6.8% 7.9% 6.9% 7.9% 9.0% 10.5% 12.7% 12.6%
Connor Bair-Cucchiaro 2.7% 1.3% 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 5.0% 6.8% 8.1% 6.8% 8.8% 9.6% 10.7% 12.9% 12.2%
Matthew Clarida 2.2% 3.7% 2.8% 4.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 7.5% 7.8% 9.1% 8.6% 9.6% 8.0% 8.8% 7.0% 3.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.