Race 3A

fj-firefly-invite-mit

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Christopher Ford 16.7% 16.3% 15.6% 13.1% 8.9% 7.8% 6.9% 5.8% 3.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Jeremy Kalas 2.1% 2.3% 2.7% 4.2% 3.7% 4.4% 5.6% 5.0% 5.8% 7.4% 6.2% 8.9% 10.1% 10.3% 10.7% 10.6%
Matthew Clarida 3.5% 3.9% 2.8% 4.2% 5.3% 5.4% 5.9% 8.0% 7.8% 7.1% 9.6% 9.1% 9.3% 7.5% 5.4% 5.2%
Christopher Jensen 8.4% 10.1% 9.6% 10.2% 9.9% 10.0% 9.8% 8.6% 6.1% 6.8% 3.7% 3.5% 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2%
John McGlynn 13.9% 14.3% 13.5% 11.9% 11.2% 8.9% 7.5% 7.2% 5.0% 3.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Thomas Presti 5.0% 4.1% 7.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.0% 9.7% 7.6% 10.0% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 5.6% 3.2% 3.2% 1.3%
Johannes Raatz 5.6% 6.2% 6.6% 4.3% 9.0% 6.4% 7.2% 9.1% 8.7% 8.1% 7.6% 6.2% 7.2% 4.1% 2.5% 1.2%
James McAndrew 2.2% 3.6% 3.3% 4.3% 4.8% 5.9% 5.2% 6.4% 6.4% 7.8% 9.1% 9.0% 8.8% 8.5% 8.9% 5.8%
Colin Henderson 2.7% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% 4.0% 4.8% 6.0% 6.3% 7.5% 6.8% 8.2% 8.7% 9.4% 10.0% 7.9% 7.3%
Brendan Cook 22.4% 18.1% 15.8% 13.4% 9.4% 7.5% 6.0% 3.3% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Bair-Cucchiaro 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 3.6% 3.9% 5.2% 4.4% 4.4% 6.3% 7.3% 8.9% 9.2% 12.1% 13.4% 11.5%
Alexander Rudkin 6.7% 7.1% 7.5% 8.7% 9.1% 9.7% 7.4% 8.2% 9.0% 7.1% 7.0% 4.0% 3.6% 2.6% 1.9% 0.4%
Ellen Kintz 2.4% 3.0% 3.5% 4.1% 5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 7.2% 8.2% 6.9% 8.3% 9.9% 8.7% 8.4% 7.3% 5.5%
Tyler Durant 3.0% 1.9% 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% 6.1% 5.7% 5.2% 5.7% 8.9% 7.9% 9.3% 8.8% 10.2% 9.1% 8.7%
Nicholaus Pehr 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 2.3% 2.1% 3.9% 3.8% 5.6% 5.5% 6.0% 8.2% 10.1% 15.0% 30.5%
Marina Crowe 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 5.9% 7.6% 8.8% 8.0% 8.7% 11.2% 14.4% 11.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.