Race 3B

fj-firefly-invite-mit

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

62.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Conor Fowler 16.2% 14.6% 13.1% 12.6% 10.2% 10.0% 6.3% 6.4% 4.1% 3.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Luke Orchardo 10.2% 10.1% 10.0% 9.2% 9.8% 7.2% 10.5% 6.8% 8.7% 6.1% 5.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0%
Scott Booth 15.5% 12.8% 13.5% 12.1% 11.0% 8.8% 9.2% 5.7% 4.2% 3.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
James Goodson 6.1% 9.2% 9.1% 7.6% 7.7% 8.4% 10.5% 8.4% 8.7% 6.5% 7.3% 5.7% 3.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2%
William Livernois 13.4% 13.6% 13.0% 11.0% 12.7% 8.5% 7.7% 6.6% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Alex Davis 5.2% 4.9% 6.0% 7.8% 6.9% 9.0% 8.3% 8.0% 8.5% 7.9% 9.2% 6.3% 5.8% 4.1% 1.7% 0.4%
Ansel Duff 6.4% 6.4% 6.6% 5.2% 7.7% 7.9% 8.0% 9.2% 7.5% 8.8% 9.3% 7.3% 4.9% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2%
Brooke Baker 7.9% 8.7% 8.5% 8.3% 8.1% 9.7% 7.5% 10.5% 8.5% 7.7% 5.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Nicholas Odegard 6.6% 5.5% 5.8% 6.8% 7.0% 8.4% 8.2% 9.8% 7.5% 8.2% 9.0% 7.3% 4.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.5%
John Cavoores 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% 3.2% 4.9% 6.0% 7.8% 10.7% 10.6% 13.8% 14.0% 7.7% 3.6%
Ali Carley 2.8% 3.3% 2.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 5.0% 5.0% 6.3% 9.4% 7.3% 11.1% 13.0% 11.3% 7.5% 2.7%
Alex Dion 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 3.2% 3.5% 6.1% 10.0% 11.6% 23.0% 30.8%
David Rodriguez Fuentes 2.8% 3.4% 4.2% 5.6% 5.2% 5.0% 6.1% 6.8% 9.3% 10.3% 9.2% 9.7% 9.4% 7.7% 3.9% 1.4%
Paige Burns 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 2.8% 3.8% 4.2% 5.2% 7.8% 10.6% 16.5% 21.1% 18.7%
Beckett Colson 2.9% 2.0% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 5.3% 4.7% 5.5% 7.6% 7.2% 8.5% 12.9% 12.3% 10.7% 8.3% 3.5%
Andrew Silhavy 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 4.8% 6.5% 13.0% 23.1% 38.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.