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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.72+3.03vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.41+2.69vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+4.14vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University2.27+1.01vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.67+2.14vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University1.81+0.53vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98+3.25vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.99+1.51vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-0.59+4.75vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.95-0.11vs Predicted
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11University of Washington1.83-4.71vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.91-1.69vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-1.92vs Predicted
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14University of Oregon-0.40-0.74vs Predicted
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15University of Southern California1.40-7.88vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands0.82-6.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.03Stanford University2.7218.9%1st Place
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4.69University of Hawaii2.4114.2%1st Place
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7.14California Poly Maritime Academy1.926.7%1st Place
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5.01San Diego State University2.2713.5%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.677.3%1st Place
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6.53Western Washington University1.817.6%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Berkeley0.982.1%1st Place
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9.51Arizona State University0.993.8%1st Place
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13.75Santa Clara University-0.590.4%1st Place
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9.89University of California at San Diego0.952.9%1st Place
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6.29University of Washington1.839.1%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Santa Cruz0.912.6%1st Place
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11.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.351.5%1st Place
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13.26University of Oregon-0.400.9%1st Place
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7.12University of Southern California1.405.7%1st Place
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9.99California State University Channel Islands0.822.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Woodworth | 18.9% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 14.2% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Noah Nyenhuis | 13.5% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Henry Boeger | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Leif Hauge | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
| Juan Casal | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 18.9% | 42.4% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 2.9% |
| Benjamin Stone | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 5.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Rowan Clinch | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 21.4% | 31.9% |
| Luke Harris | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.