Race 10A

great-herring-pond-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Adam Ceely 9.5% 10.9% 10.3% 10.5% 12.6% 11.8% 10.8% 10.1% 7.3% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Scott Goodrich 10.8% 14.7% 10.9% 11.4% 11.6% 10.9% 10.0% 8.0% 6.5% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Charles Nunn 12.8% 10.3% 13.1% 11.8% 10.9% 11.5% 11.3% 8.2% 6.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0%
Andrew McHenry 3.0% 2.6% 3.9% 4.2% 5.8% 6.3% 7.8% 12.5% 16.3% 22.4% 12.8% 2.4%
Michael Reney 5.7% 8.2% 7.9% 9.4% 10.7% 8.5% 11.5% 12.4% 11.7% 10.9% 2.8% 0.3%
Cameron Fraser 17.1% 15.1% 13.4% 14.0% 10.9% 9.7% 8.9% 5.3% 3.5% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0%
James Moody 15.5% 13.5% 15.5% 10.7% 11.8% 11.8% 8.4% 7.0% 3.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Ian Hollerbach 8.1% 7.5% 6.4% 8.9% 8.7% 10.6% 9.5% 13.3% 12.7% 9.7% 3.9% 0.7%
Francis Dougherty 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 4.6% 8.5% 35.6% 43.9%
Tom Peabody 12.5% 12.4% 13.6% 12.9% 9.4% 11.0% 9.8% 8.1% 6.8% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Shannan Smith 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 2.2% 4.1% 6.9% 31.1% 50.1%
Genevieve Marquardt 3.5% 3.9% 3.8% 4.4% 6.5% 6.1% 8.8% 11.4% 16.6% 21.9% 10.9% 2.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.