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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.98+6.69vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+3.03vs Predicted
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3Tufts University4.08+4.33vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.61vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.95+2.52vs Predicted
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6Stanford University4.05+1.29vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.83+1.07vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.49+1.21vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-1.15vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University4.01-2.36vs Predicted
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11Yale University4.55-5.35vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.60-2.84vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.81+1.12vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont3.63-5.48vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.95-3.85vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.28-2.74vs Predicted
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17Michigan State University0.22-0.25vs Predicted
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18Hampton University-0.35-0.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.69Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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5.03Georgetown University4.740.1%1st Place
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7.33Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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7.61St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.52College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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7.29Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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8.07U. S. Naval Academy3.830.1%1st Place
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9.21University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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7.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.64Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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5.65Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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9.16SUNY Maritime College3.600.0%1st Place
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14.12Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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8.52University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.950.0%1st Place
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13.26University of Miami2.280.0%1st Place
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16.75Michigan State University0.220.0%1st Place
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17.16Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Smith | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 12.0% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Haeger | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ben Spector | 7.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Stocke | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Graham Landy | 12.9% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harry Scott | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 16.1% | 34.7% | 14.1% | 2.9% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 5.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bates | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Jassin | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 8.9% | 0.9% |
| Colton Radenbaugh | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 9.9% | 43.8% | 36.3% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 5.3% | 28.0% | 59.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.