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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.98+8.93vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+4.21vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.55+8.60vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.64+3.21vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.69+1.99vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.36-1.20vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.80-0.29vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.93+1.82vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.70-2.07vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+1.53vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University2.92-0.92vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.46-0.02vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.21-4.27vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.24-5.50vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.67-8.00vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.63-4.86vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.19+0.01vs Predicted
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18Michigan State University1.36-3.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.93Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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6.21St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.1%1st Place
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11.6University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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7.21College of Charleston3.640.1%1st Place
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6.99Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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4.8Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
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6.71Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.82University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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6.93Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
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10.08Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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11.98Washington College2.460.0%1st Place
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8.73Tufts University3.210.1%1st Place
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8.5University of South Florida3.240.1%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.14SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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17.01Hampton University0.190.0%1st Place
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14.84Michigan State University1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Draheim | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% |
| Mac Mace | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 15.6% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Antoine Screve | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 1.9% |
| Zach Runci | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| Samuel Bedinger | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% |
| David Liebenberg | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Fernando Monllor | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Michael Grove | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Julia Paxton | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 6.7% | 1.7% |
| Joshua Gopeesingh | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 12.8% | 71.2% |
| Bill Weiland | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 12.3% | 35.5% | 16.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.