← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.69+6.34vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University3.70+5.23vs Predicted
-
3Yale University3.80+3.89vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.10vs Predicted
-
5University of South Florida3.24+3.75vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.06vs Predicted
-
7Georgetown University4.36-2.15vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57+3.25vs Predicted
-
9College of Charleston3.64-1.76vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.98+0.09vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.28vs Predicted
-
12Tufts University3.21-2.73vs Predicted
-
13University of Vermont2.55-1.72vs Predicted
-
14University of Southern California2.93-4.19vs Predicted
-
15Washington College2.46-3.28vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University3.20-6.97vs Predicted
-
17Hampton University0.19+0.03vs Predicted
-
18Michigan State University1.36-3.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.34Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
-
7.23Stanford University3.700.1%1st Place
-
6.89Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
-
7.1U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
8.75University of South Florida3.240.1%1st Place
-
5.94St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
-
4.85Georgetown University4.360.2%1st Place
-
11.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.0%1st Place
-
7.24College of Charleston3.640.1%1st Place
-
10.09Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
-
11.28SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
-
9.27Tufts University3.210.0%1st Place
-
11.28University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
-
9.81University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
-
11.72Washington College2.460.0%1st Place
-
9.03Old Dominion University3.200.0%1st Place
-
17.03Hampton University0.190.0%1st Place
-
14.9Michigan State University1.360.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Judge Ryan | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Antoine Screve | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Grove | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Fernando Monllor | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Fletcher Sims | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 15.8% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 1.6% |
| Mac Mace | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2.2% |
| David Liebenberg | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Samuel Bedinger | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 2.7% |
| Daniel LOCHNER | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Joshua Gopeesingh | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 12.4% | 72.4% |
| Bill Weiland | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 35.0% | 17.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.